Prediction of Yannick Hanfmann vs Novak Djokovic at Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai 10-05-25

• In recent months, Yannick Hanfmann has won 49.30% of points on his second serve, surpassing Novak Djokovic, who has won 43.18%—suggesting a better recent performance in this area for Hanfmann.
• When it comes to returning their opponent's second serve, Novak Djokovic has a slight edge at 42.08% compared to Hanfmann's 41.54%.
• In returning first serves, Hanfmann excels with 24.99% success, ahead of Djokovic at 21.47%.
• Does saving breakpoints under pressure matter? Hanfmann and Djokovic perform comparably, with Hanfmann at 56.06% and Djokovic at 55.86%.
• Over the last year, Djokovic boasts a higher match win percentage at 77.08%, compared to Hanfmann's 58.06%.
• Which is Hanfmann's strongest surface? On clay, Hanfmann has achieved a 63% win rate, whereas Djokovic excels on hard courts with an identical 63% career win rate.
• Djokovic has played most of his matches in the Grand Slam events, securing 83.33% wins, indicating a higher competition level than Hanfmann's 50% win rate on the Main tour.
• In their direct head-to-head, Djokovic leads with one win, defeating Hanfmann 6-3, 6-3 in Geneva on clay.
• Djokovic has faced tougher opponents in the past year, with an average rank of 50.65, while Hanfmann's opponents averaged a rank of 189.95.
• In deciding sets, Djokovic is superior, winning 75% compared to Hanfmann's 59% success rate.

Editorial Prediction (October 3, 2025, UTC):

As the upcoming match approaches, let's delve into their recent form and competitive characteristics.

Yannick Hanfmann displays a noteworthy advantage in second serve performance over the past six months. However, Novak Djokovic demonstrates slightly superior skills in returning second serves and saving breakpoints under pressure.

Djokovic's extensive experience and high win rate at higher-level tournaments like Grand Slams make him a formidable opponent. Additionally, his record of winning 75% of deciding sets signals resilience under pressure.

Although both players have their strengths, Djokovic's higher competition level, combined with a head-to-head victory over Hanfmann, suggests that he is the likelier victor in this matchup.